With Election Day less than two months away, the presidential race continues to tighten. The outcome will be decided by the number of electoral votes won in seven hotly contested battleground states. Each state has a certain number of electors, partly based on population. The candidate who receives 270 or more electoral votes will win the presidency.
The Harris/Trump race remains neck and neck nationally, as well as in the aforementioned seven swing states. Since the summer, Trump has made a small but significant gain in support nationally, while Harris’ national support has remained steady and is likely to remain at or close to her current levels.
In the aforementioned swing states, Trump has gained ground in all but one: Wisconsin. He has also increased his lead in Florida, and the race remains dead even in Pennsylvania. Neither candidate is close to a secure majority in the Electoral College, and it remains the case that they cannot reach 270 electoral votes without winning Pennsylvania.
As much as the public and the press huff and puff about these debates, they seldom change the dynamics of a presidential race, especially in a close contest. Most viewers are tuning in to root for their preferred candidates rather than to be persuaded to switch sides. And while some debates may produce a brief bump in poll numbers, such increases don’t last long. That’s why it’s important for both campaigns to have strong, effective debate performances.